ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – New Mexico has been on a streak of above-normal temperatures. Will the summer of 2023 be the same?

Last year was the 30th consecutive year of above-normal temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The average temperature throughout 2022 was 1.8 degrees above the 1901-2000 average, making 2022 the 17th warmest year since 1895. And the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting similar heat for the summer of 2023.

While it’s hard to predict exact summer temperatures in the middle of spring, the Farmers’ Almanac looks at many factors to try to make a long-range prediction. And this year, they say the summer, throughout the nation, will bring “sizzling temperatures.”

That seems to match with what the National Weather Service is predicting throughout the spring of this year. They say New Mexico will experience a 33% to 60% chance of above-normal temperatures through May.

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A map from NOAA and NWS shows that New Mexico is headed into above normal temperatures.

While warm temperatures seem likely, New Mexico’s spring and summer weather could depend on what happens over Earth’s other regions. For example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation – a 30 to 60-day cycle of rainfall near the equator – has already shaken up the state’s weather and could continue to do so through March, according to forecasts from the National Interagency Fire Center. And if El Niño weakens, as some signs are pointing to, it could mean a wet, but late, monsoon in the southwest, the National Interagency Fire Center forecast says.