More afternoon showers and storms have already begun firing up across the higher elevations of New Mexico. Clouds and light showers have been over the far northeast all morning long, with those showers becoming stronger and more widespread this afternoon. Similar to the past few days, rain will form over the mountains before pushing east over lower elevations.

The biggest difference this week compared to last week is lower severe weather potential, but higher flash flooding potential. Isolated stronger storms may contain hail and damaging winds, but heavy rainfall over already saturated soils will lead to flooding. If you saw flooding over the past couple of days, you have the chance to see it once again this afternoon. Recent burn scars are the biggest concern, mainly the Hermit’s Peak/Calf Canyon, Cerro Pelado, and McBride. A Flood Watch is in effect until 9 pm tonight for those areas.

Even more moisture will surge across the state Tuesday as an upper level low pressure system approaches from the west coast. This will allow for heavier, more widespread rain across the state. Showers and storms are expected to stick around overnight and into early Wednesday morning. Excessive rainfall is possible over the northeastern quadrant of the state both Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing chances for flash flooding.

Temperatures will remain below average through the middle parts of this week as moisture and cloud coverage keep us cool. Drier air and a lot more sunshine will return by the late week and into the upcoming weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm back to seasonable for the state, and start feeling like June across New Mexico.