A large low pressure system to the northwest will impact the state today. This morning there is a little bit of rain falling across the higher elevations especially north. A few isolated raindrops are possible early this morning across the Rio Grande Valley, but more heavy and widespread showers and storms will arrive this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Severe storms are likely across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, mainly between 1 PM through midnight. Large hail (2″+), gusty winds (50-60+ mph), and an isolated spin up tornado cannot be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be a concern with training storms expected, dropping a lot of rain over one location. The Middle and Upper Rio Grande Valley with see a couple rounds of fast moving storms this afternoon.
Some showers/snow flurries will stick around northern New Mexico/southern Colorado overnight, clearing into early tomorrow morning. The first freeze of the year will most likely occur early tomorrow morning for west central and north central locations. Much drier air will arrive Tuesday, with the potential for only an isolated storm or two across the southeast. Seasonable heat will stick around for most of the state this week, just in time for the first week in October.