The monsoon switches pattern this weekend, trapping in moisture across the state. This will bring more daily rain and thunderstorm chances to the mountainous terrain and surrounding areas, including the Albuquerque metro.
Moisture and temperatures will increase this weekend as an area of high pressure gains strength over the Four Corners. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue both Saturday and Sunday afternoon as moisture gets recycled from the previous day. Storms will initially develop in the late morning and early afternoon across the mountains and higher elevations, and move west, south-westerly into the surrounding lower elevations. This will set up a more favorable chance for rain in the Albuquerque metro as storms develop over the Sandias and Manzanos and move westward into the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will also climb through the weekend, staying above average into early next week.
Heavy rain will also be possible out of this weekends thunderstorms and near-normal monsoon moisture returns to the state for this time of year. Of course, watch for flash flooding over burn scar areas, but also watch for arroyos and urban flooding through the weekend.
Another pattern change is on the way early next week as the high pressure slides westward by Tuesday. This will allow for a backdoor cold front to march south and west into New Mexico, increasing low-level moisture across the state once again. This will come with a more horizontal plume of monsoon moisture across the state, stretching from west to east. These two factors will combine for a more active beginning to next week, once again bringing a good chance for scattered showers and storms and heavy rain to parts of New Mexico.