Monday is the quietest storm day this week. Storm chances will increase through the week and into the upcoming weekend as a series of fronts and surges of moisture will bring heavy rain to parts of the state over the next several days.
A plume of drier air is keeping storms on Monday in western and northern parts of New Mexico. This pattern will begin to change tonight as a cold front will push into northern New Mexico. This could keep some storms going overnight along the Colorado state line. By Tuesday afternoon, the front will have moved across northern New Mexico and will increase the lift for more showers and storms. Heavy rainfall will be possible across the northern parts of the state, increasing the risk for flash flooding especially over burn scar areas. The cold front will push south and bring a canyon wind into the Rio Grande Valley by Tuesday night. 25-35 mph gusts will be possible in the Albuquerque metro. Once again the front will be the focus for more storms Wednesday afternoon down to the I-40 corridor.
Remnant moisture from a tropical disturbance will bring rain Wednesday to areas down along the Mexican border and Texas state line, while sandwiching drier air in central New Mexico between monsoon storms across the northern half of the state. By Thursday, northerly upper level winds will push the monsoon moisture back across the entire state, bringing more active weather to many areas.
The aforementioned tropical low will sit over the Gulf of California Friday and moisture from it will begin to get drawn up into New Mexico. This will set the stage for what is expected to be a very active weekend of heavy rainfall and storms across the state. Saturday will be the busiest day as an upper level disturbance crosses New Mexico. This will bring widespread storms and heavy rainfall with record amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. Storm chances will continue Sunday and into early next week.