Moisture will be on the increase across New Mexico over the next couple of days. This will help to increase the chance for storms in central parts of the state this weekend.
Storms mostly stayed along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon as drier air limited storm development across the western half of the state. A boundary will sweep across New Mexico tonight, moving from the northeast to the southwest into Friday afternoon. This will increase storm chances across the eastern half of New Mexico and into the southwestern parts of the state too for Friday afternoon. A couple storms could be strong or severe in northeastern New Mexico.
Low-level moisture from Friday’s storms will surge northwest, bringing a big increase in dew points to the western half of the state that has seen drier weather. This surge of moisture will set the stage for a more active weekend of weather across the central part of the state. High pressure will also build over the Four Corners this weekend, continuing to bring in above-average temperatures statewide. Central New Mexico will see a better chance for afternoon and evening storms on Saturday.
The area of high pressure will begin to slide west early next week. This will allow for a more robust plume of monsoon moisture to enter southern New Mexico, while another front from the northeast will increase low-level moisture across the state. These two features will combine to produce more widespread, and potentially heavy rainfall across parts of New Mexico, including the Albuquerque metro Monday through Wednesday.