The chance for heavy snow and travel problems is increasing across southeast New Mexico where a winter storm will move in beginning Thanksgiving Day. There is still some uncertainty, but plan now for the potential of dangerous travel in that part of the state through Saturday morning.

A cold front is already moving into northwest New Mexico Wednesday evening. This is bringing in colder temperatures ahead of a winter storm. Snow will begin to develop along the Colorado state line late tonight and move south through the day on Thanksgiving. Snow chances have not only increase, but also pushed farther west. Light snow is now possible in northern New Mexico and the Albuquerque metro Thanksgiving morning. By Thursday afternoon, so will push as far south as the Gila and the Sacramento Mountains with accumulating snowfall across parts of eastern New Mexico. Winds will be gusting as high as 35-55 mph in eastern New Mexico, where blowing snow could reduce visibility.

Conditions will deteriorate Thursday night as heavier snow develops across southeast New Mexico. Widespread snow will fall on and off all day Friday across southeast New Mexico, with pockets of heavy snow possible. The storm will begin to push east by late Friday night, and clear out of southeast New Mexico by late Saturday morning.

The heaviest of the snow with this storm system is going to fall in the Sacramento Mountains and across parts of southeast New Mexico. 2-4″ of snow is a good bet across the areas. Some spots in southeast New Mexico could approach 6-10″ though, with up to 12″ in the Sacramento Mountains.

There is still some uncertainty with this storm though. While confidence has really increased, there are still some major differences between forecast models. The best thing to do is to plan for dangerous travel across southeast New Mexico on Friday, and to plan accordingly now by leaving early or postponing your travel plans.