NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – A line of lighter rain is currently lifting northeast, with a few thunderstorms crossing the Colorado border near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, the biggest threat for showers and storms will come this afternoon as a disturbance approaches. Thunderstorms are already popping up on the east side of the Sacramento Mountains, with more expected to form across the far east and southeast over the next couple of hours.

Forecast Continues Below

There is the chance for severe weather out east/southeast in the areas that will see stronger storms. Damaging winds will be the main concern, with downburst gusts potentially knocking down tree limbs and/or power lines. Small hail and isolated spin ups are possible. Storms are possible over the Central Mountain Chain as well, but not expected to be severe. Lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and far southwestern New Mexico will remain dry, with dry air at the surface evaporating most, if not all rain that tries to fall.

As rain evaporates on it’s way to the surface, it creates gustier winds known as downbursts. Isolated gusts up to 40 mph are possible across areas where evaporating rain are present, also known as virga. Skies will clear into Wednesday, with mostly sunny and warm conditions before another surge of moisture arrives. Southeastern parts of the state may see a few more thunderstorms before a pocket of heavier rain moves from southwest to northeast New Mexico overnight and into early Thursday morning. This will be the best potential for the metro to see rain, but models continue to trend drier with recent runs.

Dry air and sunshine will return Thursday and Friday with cooler, but more seasonable temperatures across the state. Winds will also pick up with more sunshine, gusts up to 30-40 mph across the state into the afternoon hours both days. Even higher gusts possible across the mountains. Breezy conditions will continue into the weekend, with sunny and seasonable conditions.