Record and near-record heat settles into New Mexico through the weekend. Scattered storms will be possible in the western half of the state Saturday, but most of the rain will not reach the ground.
The heat is on Friday across the state. High temperatures have climbed to the hottest they have been all year so far as high pressure builds overhead. Even hotter weather is expected Saturday as the upper level high pressure nudges over southeast New Mexico. Many areas will break record high temperatures Saturday afternoon, including Albuquerque with the potential for our first 100° day of the year. Mid-level moisture will get drawn up into the western half of the state Saturday behind the high pressure. This will allow for scattered storms to develop across the mountains of western and central New Mexico, even into the northern mountains and the San Juan Mountains. Unfortunately with westerly winds, this isn’t quite a monsoon set up and it won’t result in much rain reaching the lower elevations.
This heat wave will continue into Sunday even as the upper level high moves into the central U.S. Stronger winds will develop Sunday afternoon across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico through Monday. This will create a high and critical fire danger again in these areas into early next week. High temperatures cool off just a few degrees early next week statewide, but will remain above-average for this time of year.
Confidence continues to grow for the official beginning of the monsoon. Forecast models are consistent on a monsoon setup by the end of next week that will bring in monsoon and tropical moisture into western New Mexico and eastern Arizona for the second to last week of June. Some relief may finally be on the horizon for parts of the state.
