It was a mostly clear, calm, and mild start to this Thursday morning across New Mexico. However, storms are beginning to develop over the high terrain thanks to more sunshine and daytime heating. These storms will continue to strengthen this afternoon as they quickly move east/southeast across lower elevations. Burn scar flash flooding across the Northern Mountains is the biggest concern this afternoon.
Most thunderstorm activity will dissipate as the sun sets, besides maybe an isolated strong thunderstorm or two across east central parts of the state. Overnight and into early Friday morning, light showers (and maybe snow in higher elevations) will persist. A line of strong storms will develop east of the Central Mountain Chain tomorrow afternoon, with severe storms possible. Drier air will arrive to southwestern New Mexico, allowing temperatures to rise a degree or two.
Even more dry air is forecast to move over the state this weekend as high pressure begins to build from the southwest. Temperatures will rise to seasonable if not above average by the late weekend and into early next week with more sunshine and high pressure. There will still be daily chances for mountain storms for at least one part of the state through early next week as well.