After a quiet Memorial Day of weather across New Mexico, more moisture is approaching the state today. This will allow more cloud coverage and virga, or rain that evaporates before it reaches the ground, to develop west of the Central Mountain Chain. East of the mountains, there is a lot more moisture which will allow isolated strong storms to pop up this afternoon. The best potential for storms today will be closer to the Texas state line.
Temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as a low pressure system approaches the state. Southwesterly winds will usher in more upper level moisture, allowing showers and storms to be stronger and push farther west compared to today. There is the threat of severe weather across far eastern and northeastern New Mexico Wednesday including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
While the east will be dealing with strong storms, the west will be dealing with fire danger. Humidity will be down to 8-14%, above average temperatures will persist, and winds will gust up to 35-50 mph Wednesday afternoon. This has created elevated to critical fire danger across much of the Rio Grande Valley and southwestern New Mexico, which is why a Red Flag Warning is in effect.
There will be lower severe weather threats Thursday afternoon as drier air returns for a short period. By Friday and into the weekend, another storm system will arrive. This will allow for daily afternoon showers and storms into early next week, especially across eastern and northern parts of the state. This wet weather will usher in below average temperatures, especially east. Remain weather aware this week.
