After a lovely weekend with near to record breaking heat (Roswell broke a daily high temperature record Sunday at 96°), a weak backdoor front has cooled temperatures off east. They will still be warm, in the high 70s to low 80s with 90 near Las Cruces. Even southern Colorado and the Northern Mountains will be in the 70s.
Clouds will continue to increase from the south as moisture gets drawn up from Mexico by southerly surface winds. Right now it is mostly upper level clouds, but mid to low level clouds will arrive over the next few hours. These clouds will contain rain, with the best potential to see accumulation at the surface across the far east/south. Across the central and western parts of New Mexico, most (if not all) raindrops will evaporate before they reach the surface. This will create virga, or rain that evaporates before it falls, and produce gustier downdrafts.
Even more moisture from Mexico will arrive Tuesday along with a weak disturbance, bringing back chances to see some isolated to scattered storms across the central, north and east parts of the state. Heavier rain accumulation is possible across the east (.1″-.25″) where the central parts of the state will mostly see dry thunderstorms with rain evaporating before it reaches the ground.
A more unsettled weather pattern arrives late Wednesday as as a storm system approaches from the west. This, in combination with high pressure to our southeast, will draw in even more moisture across the state overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Since this system will arrive overnight, when humidity will be higher, there will be better potential for rain to actually reach the ground across the state. The only place that will most likely remain dry is far west New Mexico close to Arizona. Moisture will depart by Thursday afternoon, leaving windy conditions in it’s place through Friday.
