Afternoon storm chances will continue to stay more isolated through Friday night across New Mexico. This weekend becomes much more active, especially by Sunday when a backdoor cold front pushes through the state bringing heavy rainfall.
Storm coverage has decreased Thursday thanks to drier air that has nudged into the state. Most of the storms are south of I-40 this evening, and will taper off after sunset. Another similar day is in store for Friday, with isolated storms in the afternoon, especially across the southern high terrain. Temperatures will also continue a warming trend into Friday afternoon.
Changes are on the way though this weekend with the threat for very heavy rainfall returning. A backdoor cold front will push into northeastern New Mexico Saturday morning. This front will bring a big increase in low-level moisture behind it and mix with a robust plume of monsoon moisture overhead. Scattered storms will once again develop Saturday afternoon across the western and northern halves of New Mexico. However, very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front in northeastern New Mexico and into the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This will bring a threat of flash flooding and burn scar flooding.
The front will continue to push westward into Saturday night, keeping storm chances going overnight. The front will mark towards the Arizona state line on Sunday, bringing widespread storms and heavy rainfall across the central and northern parts of the state. This will once again increase the risk of flash flooding Sunday afternoon and evening, especially over burn scar areas. Heavy rain will return again Monday afternoon as the front makes it into far western New Mexico.
Slightly drier air returns by the middle of next week, backing off storm chances for many as warmer weather returns.