Another hot and dry day Wednesday across New Mexico as high pressure builds in overhead. Exciting changes begin Thursday as the monsoon makes an earlier than normal appearance starting Thursday. Daily afternoon storm chances will continue through next week.
High pressure has situated itself over New Mexico Wednesday afternoon bringing more hot and dry weather with light winds in most areas. This pattern will change though beginning Thursday as that area of high pressure is nudged eastward. This will begin to set up a monsoon pattern with moisture getting drawn in from the south. Isolated storms will develop Thursday afternoon across the southern and southwestern mountains, but it’s likely that most of the rain will stay in the higher elevations. A few isolated storms may also be possible in eastern New Mexico tomorrow, but strong wind gusts will be more likely than rainfall.
Friday brings a bigger surge of monsoon moisture into the state. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will develop along the central mountain chain, through the northern mountains, and across the western mountains. These storms will move north/northeast bringing rain and storm chances to the lower elevations and valleys.
This same pattern will continue through the weekend and into at least the middle of next week as the plume of monsoon moisture will stick around. Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorms will develop across the mountains and higher elevations before moving north/northeast into the lower elevations and valleys again. Much needed rainfall is on the way for many areas, with the exception of eastern parts of the state. Heavy rainfall will lead to areas of flash flooding, especially over recent major wildfire burn scares. This will continue to be a big concern through the rest of the monsoon.