Afternoon showers are beginning to develop over the high terrain. Drier air is already building across far southwest New Mexico this afternoon, limiting shower and storm potential south of the Gila. The rest of the state will see round of showers and maybe a few isolated stronger storms including hail, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The best chance to see severe weather will be far southeast New Mexico.
High pressure will continue to build over southwestern parts of the state, pushing showers and storms farther north and east Tuesday afternoon. Much lower rainfall totals are expected. A dry line will set up along the Central Mountain Chain by Wednesday, keeping moisture across eastern New Mexico.
Southeasterly surface winds will keep plentiful moisture east of the Central Mountains starting Wednesday and continuing through the late week. This will allow for many strong to severe storms to develop, especially across far eastern and northeastern New Mexico. Heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning are expected.
Southwesterly surface winds west of the Central Mountain Chain will bring drier and warmer air to the region. Plenty of sunshine is expected by the mid to late week as dry air arrives from the west and brings down dew points. This will allow temperatures to get back above average across central and western parts of the state. Heat will stick around late week and into the weekend.