High pressure moves back over New Mexico Friday, bringing a lower chance for storms. Storms will still develop, especially over the mountains, and could still cause more flash flooding. A traditional monsoon pattern will return starting Sunday.
Heavy rain today over the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar once again lead to flash flooding in areas like Holman and Cleveland. High pressure migrates back over the Four Corners Friday, bringing the heat and drier weather to this region. Scattered storms will still develop with slower storm motion than today. This will once again bring a risk of flash flooding to burn scar areas. It will be a similar story on Saturday as the high moves through northern New Mexico.
By Sunday, high pressure will be back over the central part of the U.S. This will set up a traditional monsoon pattern across western and northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Heavier rain will fall closer to the Arizona state line and the northern mountains Sunday, with isolated storms into the Rio Grande Valley. Rain chances will continue through at least the first half of next week as a plume of monsoon moisture continues to push into the western and northern halves of the state.
By the second half of next week, the plume of moisture becomes tilted, and this will bring heavier rain along the I-40 corridor and into southeastern parts of the state.