Daily chances for storms will continue through the weekend, with the heaviest of the rain in northern New Mexico. This active monsoon pattern will continue for at least the next several days.
Increasing monsoon moisture Friday brought more flash flooding and even severe storms. A Flood Watch is out for parts of New Mexico through late Friday night. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue overnight and into Saturday morning across the northern half of New Mexico. An upper level boundary has set up across northern New Mexico. This is what’s responsible for the very active weather across this part of the state and some of the heavier rain totals. This active pattern will continue through the weekend, with more heavy rain along the Colorado state line, while the rest of New Mexico will see a downtick in storm coverage. Still, afternoon storms will be possible.
High pressure will build back over New Mexico early next week. Despite the high pressure, there will still be plenty of monsoon moisture in place across the state, so daily rain and storm chances will continue. The worry with high pressure overhead is the slow motion of the storms, enhancing the risk for flash flooding. The area of high pressure will also bring in warmer temperatures through the middle of next week.
A traditional monsoon pattern will set up once again by the end of next week as the high pressure will slide back east. Some forecast models want to bring a very active end to next week with the potential for heavy rainfall in central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque metro. While that is just one forecast model, it’s a good sign that this active monsoon pattern will continue to stick with us.