A reverse monsoon pattern will bring drier and warmer weather to most of New Mexico this week. Southeastern New Mexico will be a different story with heavy rain possible.

A backdoor front and good moisture is bringing storms, and even severe weather to southeastern parts of the state Monday afternoon. These storms will weaken through the late evening, but heavy rain will still be possible. There is a Flood Watch out for southeastern New Mexico through 6 AM Tuesday.

Heavy rain will continue be possible through the middle of the week in southeastern parts of the state where good moisture and lift is in place. This could erase Carlsbad’s rainfall deficit since the monsoon began. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will develop to our northwest and will set up a reverse monsoon pattern across New Mexico. This blocks the best monsoon moisture from entering New Mexico, and brings only very isolated rain chances to the rest of the state. Much warmer weather will also move in, especially late this week.

There is a chance for increasing storm chances Friday and Saturday for central parts of New Mexico, but again storms will remain very hit or miss.