Drier air will limit storm chances in northern New Mexico Thursday, but rain is still likely in the southern half of the state. An impressive surge of monsoon moisture arrives this weekend bringing heavy rain to parts of the state.
Drier air will bring a break from the rain north of I-40 on Thursday, but scattered storms will continue south of I-40. The remnant tropical low will push westward on Friday, allowing for drier air to move into the eastern half of the state. Isolated to scattered storms will still be possible Friday afternoon across the western half of New Mexico.
As the the remnant tropical low pressure system travels westward and eventually all the way to Sanora, Mexico and the Gulf of California, it will begin to bring a deep surge of monsoon moisture into New Mexico. Southwestern parts of the state will see it first beginning Friday afternoon, but it will continue to march northward through Friday night. This will set the stage for widespread rain and thunderstorms Saturday. There is still uncertainty where some of the heaviest rain will fall. However, the heaviest rain is likely across the southern half of the state, and especially southwest New Mexico where the highest moisture values will be.
Almost all of New Mexico will be under a Flood Watch beginning Friday through the weekend. Flash flooding will be possible across nearly every corner of the state with the heavy rain that is expected. Temperatures will also be much cooler Saturday afternoon. Another uncertainty is whether the rain will fall in thunderstorms or bread areas of rain. This will also make an impact on the risk for flash flooding.
Active weather will continue into next week as well with more daily chances for rain and storms.