A backdoor cold front will merge with a potent low-pressure system Monday night creating heavy rain in northeast New Mexico. Along with some lower elevation snowmelt, this could overwhelm smaller streams and poor drainage areas. Impressively, above 10,000’ there will be significant snow accumulations into Tuesday morning. Most thunderstorms will contain small hail. It’s proven difficult to pinpoint where we will observe severe weather Monday night. More than likely we will see a line of storm bow, which could create a couple of supercells. The severe threat lies between Quay and Roosevelt Counties.
The low pressure will keep the showers alive in the northeast Tuesday morning. Every county in New Mexico could see a thunderstorm on Tuesday. These storms will be routine. Pacific moisture still finds its way into the southwest through the rest of the week allowing for mountain showers. Expect sunnier, warmer weather starting Thursday.