Moisture will increase across New Mexico Monday night bringing better chances for monsoon storms to the western and northern halves of the state. Heavy rainfall will be possible, leading to a risk of flash flooding.
It’s been an active monsoon day across the western two-thirds of New Mexico. Showers and storms will continue across parts of the state overnight as a backdoor cold front pushes south and west. This front will not cool off temperatures, but will instead bring a big increase in low-level moisture overnight. An east canyon wind will be possible tonight in the Albuquerque metro with gusts over 30 mph.
More widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday afternoon after the backdoor front moves through. At the same time, high pressure will be building over Arizona. This will cause storms, once they develop, to move from north to south through the early overnight hours. This is a favorable pattern for rain in the Albuquerque metro as storms develop across the northern mountains and move south in the metro late in the evening. Heavy rain will be likely from the storms that develop. There is a very high risk of burn scar flooding Tuesday, but also a risk of flash flooding in other areas where storms develop and drop heavy rain.
This active monsoon pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will dance around the Four Corners for the next several days, keeping chances for showers and storms around across the western two-thirds of New Mexico. Heavy rain will also be possible every afternoon as the heat will also stick around.