A late season surge of monsoon moisture is bringing rain and thunderstorm across parts of New Mexico. The heaviest of the rain with be around the Four Corners where flash flooding is possible.
Rain is still falling tonight across the western half of New Mexico. An axis of well-above average moisture has set up across northwest New Mexico, and that is where a band of light to moderate rainfall has set up tonight. Parts of western New Mexico and southwestern Colorado are under a Flood Watch through late Thursday night.
Moisture will continue to be on the increase, especially around the Four Corners, through Wednesday. Very heavy rainfall is likely in this area through Thursday, with over 2″ of rain possible into southwest Colorado. All of this rain could lead to areas of flash flooding, with the heaviest of the rainfall likely Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storm chances will also be possible as far east as the Rio Grande Valley through Thursday, but dry air pushing in from the east is going to squeeze the rain into western parts of New Mexico.
The tap to the monsoon moisture begins to get cutoff late Thursday night as high pressure begins to creep in from the south. This is going to tilt the axis of monsoon moisture along the I-40 corridor by Friday. This is when we will see another chance for isolated storms in central New Mexico.
Drier air will return for almost all of New Mexico this weekend, limiting the chance for rain to the mountain peaks of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. A cold front this weekend will bring in cooler temperatures and have it feeling more like fall into next week.