Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase through the weekend as a cold front pushes south and west across the state. Heavy rain will be possible along and behind the front, bringing a threat of flash flooding.
Another down-tick in storm coverage Friday across New Mexico as high pressure nudges in to the southwest. However, this pattern will begin to change Saturday as another surge of monsoon moisture arrives, combined with a cold front into the northeastern part of the state. Showers and storms will develop across the mountains Saturday afternoon, but as the front pushes into northeast New Mexico, it will bring strong storms and heavy rain along the front. Upslope flow along the front will also increase the rainfall rates across the northern mountains as it pushes south and west through the weekend. This will increase the risk of flash flooding and debris flows for the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon, Cerro Pelado, and Cooks Peak burn scar areas. Flash Flood Watches go into effect across this part of the state Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.
Showers and storms will likely continue Saturday night into Sunday morning as the backdoor cold front pushes through the Rio Grande Valley towards the Arizona state line. Scattered showers and storms will again return Sunday, but with more stable air behind the cold front, it may be more rain than storms. A band of heavier rainfall will set up along this front from central New Mexico to the northern mountains and northeastern parts of the state. This band of heavier rainfall could shift in either direction, regardless, heavy rain is likely across the northern mountains of New Mexico. Showers and storms will continue into Monday too, continue the chance for heavy rain and flooding.
High pressure will begin to move over New Mexico on Tuesday. This will bring a down-tick in storms, especially on Wednesday and Thursday, except for the mountains and higher elevations. A more active patter will set up again Friday.