Heavy rain is starting to move into northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado this afternoon. Rounds of heavy rainfall will increase the risk for flash flooding around the Four Corners.
Isolated storms have developed Wednesday afternoon across parts of western and northern New Mexico, along with southern Colorado. The best of the monsoon moisture plume is still in Arizona, but is now starting to push into the Four Corners this evening. This is going to begin the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding in this area, where a Flood Watch is in effect through late Thursday night. Rounds of showers and storms are likely for northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado through Thursday night. In total, 3/4″ to over 1″ of rain will be possible in this area.
The plume of monsoon moisture starts to get tilted Thursday and Friday. This will bring heavier rainfall to parts of northern New Mexico Thursday, including a chance for storms in the metro. By Friday, even drier air will begin to move in and will limit the chance of rain to central and western parts of New Mexico. Monsoon moisture will continue to get pushed south and washed out with dry air through the weekend.
A cold front will move into New Mexico Sunday, cooling temperatures off into early next week, especially across eastern New Mexico. Chances for rain are looking better around the middle of next week with one last push of monsoon moisture before the season is up at the end of next week.