A large low pressure system that’s been approaching the state has finally arrived, with widespread activity along and south of I-40 this evening. Far southern/southeastern New Mexico have the potential for severe weather including hail and damaging wind gusts, with a few storms already meeting severe criteria earlier this afternoon. Severe weather potential will stick around throughout the later evening hours as another wave of storms arrive.
These storms will stick around southeast New Mexico until 1 or 2 AM before pushing east into Texas. Mostly dry and cloudy overnight, with the chance for a few showers over the west central mountains to kick off the day Wednesday. Very isolated showers and potentially a pop up storm will move across central/northern New Mexico throughout the afternoon, maybe bringing a few snow flurries to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Temperatures will be cooler, more seasonable Wednesday before drier air and breezy conditions arrive Thursday.
Dry westerly winds will dominate the forecast late this week, with a lot more sunshine and above average temperatures sticking around. A backdoor front arriving early Friday morning will pick up winds north Friday afternoon, with windy conditions statewide Saturday as a storm system approaches. Saturday will most likely be the last day of above average heat before below average conditions arrive Sunday and into next week.
A large storm system approaching the state late this weekend/early next week is going to bring a blast of arctic air across New Mexico. However, there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the exact timing and track of the system. How much, if any, rainfall is still very much up in the air. Temperatures may cool anywhere from 5° to 20° across the state. It is all dependent on the path of the storm, so keep checking back for more updates on next week’s storm.