Our first storm system of the fall season is beginning to impact the state. Unfortunately this system will travel farther south than previously anticipated last week, bringing less rainfall and not nearly as big of a cool down across New Mexico. Still, much better chances for rain and slightly more seasonable temperatures will arrive Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to that storm system.
A few high terrain showers/storms are expected to continue overnight, especially over the Gila and western New Mexico. Clouds sticking around overnight will allow for milder overnight lows, with many places across northern New Mexico not expected to get below freezing thanks to the cloud coverage. The most moisture remains across far southern parts of the state, setting the stage for more widespread rain tomorrow.
The first wave of heavier rain will arrive to southern New Mexico Tuesday morning, pushing north into the early afternoon. The showers and storms will dry out as they push north, bringing significantly less rainfall north of I-40. Another wave of rain will arrive to southern New Mexico in the later afternoon/early evening, bringing stronger storms and the chance for severe weather. Large hail and damaging wind gusts across far southern/southeastern New Mexico will be the main concern Tuesday afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler temperatures compared to today are expected statewide.
By Wednesday, the storm system will be departing. This will allow temperatures to cool a degree or two more, but still remain above average across the state. Much more isolated, lighter showers and storms will continue throughout the afternoon as drier air arrives. Sunnier skies and warmer temperatures will arrive late week and into the weekend, before another storm system early next week brings more chances for rain and cooler temperatures.