A low-pressure system is approaching the area from the west. This will bring dry and strong southwest/westerly winds to surface levels, with gusts of 35-45 mph across the south and west. These gusty winds, mixed with very dry air at the surface, have brought the return of elevated to critical fire danger. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across the central and southern Rio Grande Valley along with far southern New Mexico throughout the day Sunday.
Fire weather conditions will persist into Monday across the south/central parts of the state, the reason a Fire Weather Watch is currently in effect. It will most likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning by tomorrow. While the south and west will be dealing with heat, winds, and dry air, the far northeastern corner of the state will be seeing chances for severe weather.
Forecast Continues Below
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A backdoor cold front will cross into northeast New Mexico late Sunday and into Monday, increasing moisture over the area. This will allow strong storms to form over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before pushing quickly east/northeast as a weak Pacific front guides storm motion. This Pacific front will create more lift and higher chances to see severe weather including large hail (2″+), damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph), and an isolated tornado. Far northeastern New Mexico will be most at risk for severe weather, mainly including Union and possibly Colfax counties near the Colorado border.
The backdoor front will keep temperatures cooler statewide Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will continue to build into the mid to late week as westerly winds return. This will allow for downslope warming, especially southeast. Roswell and Carlsbad are on track to see their first 100° day of the year next Thursday, while Albuquerque may see the first 90° day of 2023.