Drier air will return to the state, bringing a downtick in monsoon storm coverage. Afternoon storms will still be possible, but mainly across the northern and southern mountains.
It’s another relatively active monsoon day across New Mexico, but a slot of dry air has limited storm chances across southwester, central, and northeastern New Mexico Tuesday. This slot of dry air will expand to cover much of the western half of the state by Wednesday, keeping the better chance for storms across the peaks of the northern and southern mountains, with isolated storm chances into the eastern plains. This pattern will continue through Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the state beginning late Thursday, ushering in a warming trend that will continue into the weekend. High temperatures will climb back above average for most of the state. Monsoon moisture will be trapped underneath the high, so despite the warmer temperatures, afternoon storm chances will still continue across New Mexico, especially over mountain peaks.
This pattern will continue into early next week, tilting the axis of monsoon moisture, and keeping daily rain and thunderstorm chances going. Outflow boundaries will be key to valley and lower elevation storm chances late in the afternoon and evening.