High pressure is currently strengthening as it approaches. Overnight will be mild and calm statewide, with clouds arriving to western New Mexico overnight and into early Tuesday morning. Heat will continue to build across the state tomorrow as high pressure centers itself over New Mexico. This will allow record breaking high temperatures for many locations across the state with dangerous levels of heat.
The heat dome will arrive Tuesday afternoon. This will bring the hottest temperatures of the next 7 days, and likely the entire year so far. Heat Advisories are in effect for most of the state, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the Chaves and Eddy counties along with the middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque metro, with temperatures rising to dangerous levels up to 105°-112°.
High pressure will begin to weaken starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. A large, and more powerful low pressure system to the north will squeeze and push the high into Texas. This will allow monsoon moisture from northern Mexico to surge up across the AZ/NM border, bringing scattered mountain storms across western and northern New Mexico starting Wednesday and continuing into the weekend ahead of us.
While scattered showers and storms are expected west, severe storms are possible across northeastern New Mexico starting Wednesday. Multiple disturbances and backdoor fronts will draw more moisture across the northeast, creating chances for severe weather each afternoon and evening through the late week. Luckily, the rain will also bring a bit of relief from the extreme heat by the later week and weekend as well.