Convection is off to an earlier start today. Storms southwest of Albuquerque have a chance of surviving a trajectory through the metro. Atmospheric profiles look relatively unstable between Bernalillo and Torrance County. The air in southeast New Mexico is very unstable. We will likely see another round of dangerous hailstorms in or around Chaves County tonight. The tornado threat is nonzero. Convection in Mexico and Texas will move into southeast New Mexico late.
An upper low will be right on top of New Mexico tomorrow. Storms will be strong and widespread yet again. One or two storms in southeast New Mexico will have a shot at producing large hail. The low will push east and take the biggest storms with it. The chance for rain in Albuquerque will be drastically lower. This weekend brings a drier, warmer, and sunnier trend.