After a paltry start to this year’s monsoon, a more typical monsoon pattern is finally going to start setting up this weekend. Earlier today, drier air moved in across northern and eastern New Mexico with scattered storms across Central and western parts of the state. Even more monsoon moisture will surge across the state increasingly each day into early next week.

A disturbance is currently approaching the West Coast. This disturbance will push the high pressure in Texas farther south and east. The low pressure (disturbance) and high pressure will work together to funnel up moisture across the Desert Southwest. This will be the most abundant surge of monsoon moisture so far this season. Shower and thunderstorm activity will stick around into early next week.

Forecast Continues Below

Thursday’s storms will be a bit more widespread than today, popping up along and west of the Central Mountain Chain tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms will push east throughout the afternoon and evening, the heaviest rain most likely over the Gila. Showers and an isolated storm may potentially continue across the far eastern parts of the state Thursday night and into early Friday morning. Moisture west will keep temperatures a few degrees below average, while well above average temperatures will stick around across the east.

Starting Friday and into the upcoming weekend, widespread monsoon moisture from the high and low pressure will arrive in southern New Mexico. This moisture will slowly move north across the state throughout this weekend and into early next week. Burn scar flash flooding remains the main concern across the mountains with excessive rainfall possible in localized areas.