A more traditional monsoon pattern will finally set up into this weekend. The pattern will set up over the next 24-48 hours, bringing the best surge of monsoon moisture so far this season into this weekend and early next week. Today, monsoon moisture is not nearly as abundant as the pattern is not fully set up. Scattered showers and storms west of the Central Mountain Chain will persist throughout this afternoon and evening. Hit or miss storms are expected across the middle Rio Grande Valley.
Tomorrow, slightly more monsoon moisture will surge from south to north across the state. This will keep the heaviest rainfall in south/southwestern New Mexico, drier to the north. Burn scar flash flooding over the Gila and Sacramento Mountains will be the main concern. Storms will be more few and far between over the Middle Rio Grande Valley, hit or miss Friday afternoon and evening.
By Saturday, abundant monsoon moisture will arrive and finally bring weather that’s normal to the state for the season. Widespread showers and storms will form across the state both Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening. Storm motions will revolve around high pressure in Texas, moving south to north mainly south of I-40, more west to east across northern New Mexico.
A backdoor cold front will arrive Monday, bringing even more widespread chances for heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms across the state. The heaviest rain looks to be across northern New Mexico, with burn scar and regular flash flooding a major concern across the Northern Mountains communities. Grab an umbrella and keep it handy for any weekend plans you may have, and remain weather aware.