COVID-19 Projection Charts: when will coronavirus be over?

Coronavirus Resources

Through data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from local and national government websites and WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is providing projections to help government leaders and public health professionals determine when they could shift using containment strategies (social distancing) to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 in their community.

IHME is providing initial estimates of when infections could drop to 1 per 1 million people. At that point, it may be possible to relax social distancing, if – and only if – widespread testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limitations on mass gathering are in place. The timeline could change based on what data shows on the trajectory of the pandemic.

See the Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website for complete list of frequently asked questions.

COVID-19 model FAQs

These forecasts include data from local and national governments, hospital networks and associations, the World Health Organization, third-party aggregators, and a range of other sources. IHME uses the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository on Github to collate daily death numbers due to COVID-19. They supplement this dataset as needed to improve the accuracy of their projections. For example, IHME uses death data from the French governmental dashboard, Colorado’s Department of Public Health and Environment website, Illinois’s Department of Health COVID-19 website, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene website, and the New York Times GitHub repository. IHME’s models are updated regularly as new data is available, to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.

See the Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website for complete list of frequently asked questions.

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