Good runoff likely from large snowpack

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) - The latest federal estimate for snowpack in New Mexico's mountains show above-average accumulations for this time of year.

But below-average snowpack in the southern Colorado mountains that also feed the Rio Grande, Pecos and Canadian river basins means only average runoff is expected.

The latest estimates were released late last week by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Hydrologic technician Wayne Sleep says good snowpack should mean that spring runoff into the state's rivers and reservoirs will be good, if a few things don't happen between now and April.

The factors that could cut into the runoff include warmer weather, spring rains or wind that could melt snow too quickly, or a drop in the numbers of storms bringing snow to the region.

Sleep says if the storms keep tracking into the state there is a potential for a great runoff year.

November and December were drier than normal, but an El Nino weather pattern brought several snow-heavy storms in January and in the first week of February, Sleep said. Cold temperatures have helped keep the snowpack in place.

"The ongoing snowfall and weather in February and March will be important factors affecting water supplies for the remainder of the year," Sleep said. "If we can stay in the storm track and keep picking up snow, this has the potential to be a great runoff."

Snow survey specialists rate snowpack based on its water content. A few inches of snow on the ground usually equals less water when melted down. So the more snow, and the "wetter" it is when it piles up, the better for the state's water supplies come spring.

The snow-water equivalent in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains currently ranges from 99 percent to 116 percent of the normal amount averaged from 1971 to 2000. The snowpack feeds river flows in the Rio Grande, Pecos and Canadian rivers. Total precipitation in the Rio Grande and Pecos basins was about 130 percent of average for January.

The snowpack feeding the Rio Chama and Jemez rivers both have water content above 100 percent of the norm.

The snowpack water content in the Gila range is from 182 to 246 percent of the norm, spelling a potentially great season for the San Francisco, Gila and Mimbres rivers in southwestern New Mexico.

"This is probably their best year in 15 years," Sleep said.

Snowpack is also above average at lower elevations - from 6,000 to 9,000 feet - in Northern New Mexico. The Estancia Valley and the Pecos Valley picked up 6 to 9 inches of snow in the last storm Feb. 3 and several inches in the storm the week prior.

A team of NRCS snow surveyors monitor more than 50 high-elevation sites in remote parts of the New Mexico mountains and produce the runoff predictions based on the readings.

Information from: The Santa Fe New Mexican